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Big Stat Says Alpinista CAN’T Win

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The 2022 Yorkshire Oaks only has seven runners heading to post – with the prolific winner, Alpinista, topping the betting for the race. However, a case can be made for most in Thursday’s Group One contest, while we’ve a single monster trend that tells us the hot favourite can’t win!

 Andy Newton takes a look at the runners and the key trends, plus he gives you his York racing tip for the 2022 Yorkshire Oaks.

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DID YOU KNOW? 18 of the last 21 Yorkshire Oaks winners were drawn 4 or higher

What Time/Date Is The 2022 Yorkshire Oaks?

The Yorkshire Oaks is a Group One race run over 1m4f at York racecourse.

🕙Time: 3:35pm (UK time)
📅Date: Thursday 18th August 2022
🏇Racecourse: York
💰 Winner: £302,690 (Group 1)

RELATED: York Racing Tips & Trends: Ebor Festival Best Bets Weds 17th Aug

Alpinista Will Need To Overcome Key Age Trend

One of the main Darley Yorkshire Oaks trends is that 20 of the last 21 winners have been aged 3 or 4 years-old. In that period only the mightly Enable kicked this stat into touch when winning the 2019 running as a 5 year-old.


With this in mind, the likely favourite – Alpinista, who heads into the race as the only 5 year-old in the contest, will have this major age stat to overcome.

ALL of the other six runners in the race are aged 3 or 4, while if we look back even further through the past winners – and since it was opened to older (3+) filles and mares in 1991 – we’ve only had three winners aged 5! That’s 28 winners from the last 31 renewals that have been aged either 3 or 4 – a monster 90% strike-rate!

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Yorkshire Oaks Trends and Stats

Find the best winning profiles with our key Yorkshire Oaks trends and stats

  • 20/21 – Aged 3 (14) or 4 (6) years-old
  • 20/21 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
  • 19/21 – Had at least 3 previous wins to their name
  • 18/21 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
  • 18/21 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
  • 18/21 – Placed favourites
  • 17/21 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
  • 15/21 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
  • 15/21 – Previous Group 1 winners
  • 14/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
  • 11/21 – Winning favourites
  • 9/21 – Had run in that season’s Epsom Oaks (3 winners)
  • 6/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (last 2)
  • 3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 8)
  • Snowfall (8/15 fav) won the race in 2021


York Racing Tips | 2022 Yorkshire Oaks Best Bets

Despite the big age trend against her, Alpinista @ 2/1 with BetUK will still be popular here, having won her last 6 races (4 G1) and is the top-rated in the field at 118. Luke Morris rides as usual, but she’s unlikely to be much value and let’s not forget she was beaten in this race back in 2020 (2nd).

However, as mentioned, this 5 year-old will have to defy the key age trend that’s seen 20 of the last 21 winners aged ether 3 or 4 years-old – that tells us that 95% of the last 21 winners were aged 4 or younger!

The Prescott grey filly will also face a strong challenge from Ireland with three big player coming acorss the Irish Sea.

Who Are We Taking Alpinista On With?

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Yorkshire Oaks six times and sends his Epsom Oaks winner – Tuesday. But she will need to bounce back from a poor run in the Irish Derby since, albeit against the boys that day. She’s had 2 months to revcover and back against her own sex has to be considered.

However, with the Epsom Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn since being well-beaten in the King George at Ascot, the jury is still very much out as to the strength of this year’s Epsom Oaks.

Lilac Road and the French raider Raclette are useful performers, but you just feel they’ve both need to find a bit more, so that leaves us with Magical Lagoon and LA PETITE COCO (e/w) @ 9/2 with BetUK.

The first-named landed the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot in June from the front and backed that up by taking the Irish Oaks in similar fashion at the Curragh last month. She’s not flashy, but a gutsy performer from the front and it could easily be more of the same here under jockey Shane Foley.


But the better value looks to be LE PETITE COCO, (e/w) @ 9/2 with BetUK, who was the G1 winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh last time out over 1m2f. She’s up in trip again here to 1m4f, but has won well over 1m3f and this distance in the past, plus beat the 2020 winner of this race – Love – in the Moyglare Blandford Stakes.

She’s also been lightly campaigned this season, with just one run, but having won 5 of her 8 starts knows how to get the job done. Regular rider, Billy Lee, who has ridden her in all her starts, also comes over for the ride. You feel this race has been the target all season and being rated just 3lbs off the likely favourite – Alpinista – certainly looks the value in the race.

Note: Odds are subject to change

Other Horse Racing Tips
York Placepot Tips – Thursday 18th August
York Each-Way Betting Tip – Thursday 18th August

Andy Newton’s Lucky 15 York Horse Racing Tips – Thursday 18th August
Daily Horse Racing Betting Tips – Thursday 18th August
Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips – Thursday 18th August

Andrew Mount’s SpreadEx Analysis – Thursday 18th August
Today’s Horse Racing NAP – Thursday 18th August
York Ebor Festival Tips and Trends – Thursday 18th August
2022 Yorkshire Oaks Trends: Big Stat Says Alpinista CAN’T Win
Stradivarius Puts Unbeaten York Record On The Line In Lonsdale Cup
York Racing Free Bets & Ebor Festival Betting Offers – Day Two
Kevin Blake’s York Tips – Thursday 18th August
£30 FREE YORK Ebor Festival Bet With 888Sport
£60 FREE YORK Ebor Festival Bet With BetUK
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Yorkshire Oaks 2022 Latest Betting

All odds correct as of 18:11BST on Tues 17 Aug and subject to change

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Yorkshire Oaks Recent Winners

  • 2021 – SNOWFALL (8/15 fav)
  • 2020 – LOVE (4/9 fav)
  • 2019 – ENABLE (1/4 fav)
  • 2018 – SEA OF CLASS (7/4 fav)
  • 2017 – ENABLE (1/4 fav)
  • 2016 – SEVENTH HEAVEN (10/3)

RELATED: York Races Today – See All Races at York Today

York Race Times and Schedule | Thurs 18th Aug

  • 1:50 – Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (IRE Incentive Race) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV
  • 2:25 – Goffs UK Harry Beeby Premier Yearling Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV
  • 3:00 – Clipper Logistics Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m ITV
  • 3:35 – Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV
  • 4:10 – British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV
  • 4:45 – OR8Wellness EBF Stallions Nursery Handicap Cl2 (2yo) 7f RTV
  • 5:20 – British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 7f RTV

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